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Brodie's Real Estate Update - November 2022

I hope you are well and are ready for another Saskatchewan winter! I wanted to take a few minutes of your time to update you on our current market! 

As the Bank of Canada continues to fight inflation with interest rate hikes, we have been asked our opinion on the impact it will have on the Saskatoons housing market. Our short answer is, we see minimal risk to our housing market.

The Saskatchewan economy remains strong and is still the most affordable Province to live in within Canada. Although interest rates have historically had an adverse effect on prices, low supply continues to keep upward pressure on prices. We are seeing a low housing supply in our city (25% below the 10-year average) and with construction costs high and labor short, we do not see this trend changing soon.

Let’s compare this with the last financial crisis in 2007-2008. During that financial crisis, Saskatchewan was one of the only places (State or Province) in all of North America that did not see 2 consecutive quarters (a definition of recession) decrease in GDP. Saskatchewan’s economy will remain strong over the short term. A conference board of Canada article recently stated that “Economic growth in Saskatoon is expected to outpace 12 other major cities in Canada with 7.2 percent in real GDP growth this year and 3.9 percent next year.”

Population growth. Our city continues to grow continually putting pressure on the housing supply. Did you know our largest demographic is the 30-40 age group? Yes, not the boomers. Saskatoon is young, prosperous, and affordable.

Real Estate in Saskatoon, historically, has been a safe and non-volatile investment. Year over year our benchmark price is up 4.4% for the city.

This is a quick look at our opinion, supported by facts. There are a lot of good things happening here. Don’t let the macroeconomic data scare you. If you want a more microeconomic view (or info breakdown for your city if it is Martensville or Warman etc.), give me a call, text, or DM. I am happy to help!

Stay warm!

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Currently in Saskatoon's Real Estate Market there are 1644 active listing, and an additional 981 in the surrounding areas of the city. In January, solds & listings were both UP 6% year over year vs. 2016 in Saskatoon. Sales were up 15% year to date (with listings down 8%) in the surround areas (most notably Martensville, Warman, Osler, acreages..etc). Of the 1644 listings in Saskatoon: 42% are condos and 44%+ are vacant (166 of those vacancies are newer builds (2013+). 

 

Traditionally, many people hold their breath during an American election year, as the results usually influence our economy. It seems that the recent result has had a positive influence on our resource driven economy YTD, most notably with Oil being up roughly $8 a barrel since Trump won. If trade relations remain strong with the US (how about that Trudeau Handshake!), I would assume that there will be continued demand on our resources from south of the border. Continued resource demand = more disposible income + more potential population gains = more housing demand.

 

Having recently spoken with one of the larger builders in the city, I was informed that they had their strongest January in a few years. They noted that many of the buyers who were waiting on prices to continue to cool, seemed to have had a change in sentiment on the economy and decided it was time to act! These are all positive things and it seems the real estate cycle may be working to get out of the stagnation we have seen over the last few years.

 

Another postive was released last week from STATSCAN, indicating that the 5 fasting growing cities in Canada from 2011-2016 were all in the prairies, with Saskatoon (+12.5%) and Regina being 3 & 4 respectively. These numbers help support that population growth has been a key to keeping our housing prices level, with lower oil prices over the last couple of years.

 

At the end of the day, housing is a commodity (I always argue it actually a necessity in our climate) which fluctuates due to many different variables. A key variable is the bank of canada's over night rate (we usually (always do..) peg ours with the federal reserves (USA)). I believe it will be important for us to keep a close eye on the over night rate in the next 12 months as that will give us a good idea of where housing prices are headed in the prairies.

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Tim Hollman

306.230.1126

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